水利投资与国民经济增长关系的实证研究

摘要

基于1990-2008年的相关数据,通过建立水利投资与GDP的向量自回归(VAR)模型,利用Granger因果关系检验、脉冲响应和方差分解等计量经济学方法对水利投资与GDP之间的互动关系进行实证分析.结果表明:水利投资与国民经济增长存在双向因果关系.水利投资的增加有力推动GDP的增长；反之,GDP的增加对水利投资也有较强的促进作用.%Based on the relevant data from 1990 to 2008 and by establishing the VAR model for the investment of water conservancy and CDP,the methods of econometrics such as the Granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition are employed to analyze the relationship between the investment of water conservancy and GDP.The results show that there is a mutual causality between the investment of water conservancy and economic growth.The investment of water conservancy plays an important role in GDP,while GDP also has obvious effect on the investment of water conservancy.