中国农业源主要污染物产生量与经济发展水平的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征分析

摘要

Features of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) potentially existing between the outputs of some main pollutants, I.e. COD and ammonia nitrogen, from agriculture in 2000 -2009 and the economic development level in the same period in China are studied, and stage of the agricultural pollution and its ongoing tendency analyzed. Results show that the relationship between the outputs of COD and ammonia nitrogen from agriculture and the per capita agricultural GDP in 2000 -2009 in China fits the features of EKC, suggesting that when the per capita agricultural GDP reaches ￥7 037.04, the output of COD from agriculture arrives at an inflection point, where it is 14871 400 tons; and when the per capita agricultural GDP reaches to ￥ 6513.03, the output of ammonia nitrogen from agriculture comes to an inflection point, where it is 1937200 tons. So if after 2009 the per capita agricultural GDP continues to grow at a rate of 5. 76% , which was the lowest per capita agricultural GDP growth rate in 2000 - 2009, the output of ammonia nitrogen from agriculture will reach to an reflection point in the year of 2014 and the output of COD will in the year of 2016. Meanwhile, because sharp differences exist between regions in output of the main pollutants from agriculture, industrial structure, demographic characteristics, and agricultural production, no obvious relationships that fit the EKC feature are found between the output of the main pollutants, I. e. COD and ammonia nitrogen, from agriculture and the per capita agricultural GDP in Ii-aoning, Jiangsu, Henan, Hubei, Guangdong, and Sichuan provinces.%研究了中国2000-2009年农业源主要污染物COD和氨氮产生量与同期经济发展水平之间可能存在的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征,分析目前中国农业源污染所处阶段及进一步的变化趋势.结果表明,2000-2009年中国农业源主要污染物COD和氨氮产生量与人均农业GDP的关系符合环境库兹涅茨曲线特征.当人均农业GDP达到7 037.04元时,中国农业源COD产生量达到拐点,拐点时的COD产生量为l 487.14万t；当人均农业GDP达到6 513.03元时,中国农业源氨氮产生量达到拐点,拐点时的氨氮产生量为193.72万t.若按照2000-2009年最低人均农业GDP年增长率5.76％来估算2009年以后各年人均农业GDP,那么,2014年中国农业源氨氮产生量将达到拐点,2016年中国农业源COD产生量将达到拐点.同时,由于农业源主要污染物产生量的区域差异性,以及产业结构、人口特征、农业生产特点等实际情况差异,辽宁、江苏、河南、湖北、广东、四川6省农业源主要污染物COD和氨氮产生量与各省的人均农业GDP之间未呈现显著的环境库兹涅茨曲线特征关系.