基于Logit模型的航班延误险购买行为研究

摘要

为了对旅客航班延误险的购买行为进行量化分析,采用问卷调查的方式,得到了旅客特征数据和相应的偏好数据;基于二元Logit的理论和方法,构建旅客航班延误险购买行为模型,进行参数标定和分析,研究结果表明旅客的延误经历、航班延误险理赔手续容易度以及延误险价格对旅客航班延误险购买行为影响最为显著.应用所建模型对旅客购买行为进行预测并将预测结果与观测值对比,表明所选因素能够很好地解释旅客对航班延误险的购买偏好. 同时,结合分析结果,为相关部门制定经营战略提出相应建议.%In order to make quantitative analysis of passengers' flight delay insurance purchase behavior, this study collected passengers' characteristics and preference data through questionnaire survey. It established the model of passengers' flight delays purchase behavior and analyzed the model parameters based on the theory and method of binary Logit model. Results indicate that passengers ' delay experience, the ease of insurance claims and insurance price are the most significant factors for passengers' purchasing behavior. As passengers' choice behavior is forecast with the model and results are compared, experimental results indicate that the se-lected factors can be used to explain passengers' purchase preference successfully. Meanwhile, the analysis re-sults may give corresponding suggestions for the business strategy of relevant departments.