加权马尔可夫链在空气污染指标预测中的应用

摘要

加权的马尔可夫链理论为预测提供了一种新的方法,利用序列的均值-标准方差分类法建立空气污染指数的分级标准,针对空气污染指数为相依随机变量的特点,采取以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权重,用加权的马尔可夫链模型来预测未来空气污染变化状态。以南京市2011年10月13日—11月12日共31天的空气污染指数为实例对该方法进行了具体应用,取得较为满意的结果。%The theory of markov chain with seights supplied a new method to prediciting, applied the sequence of standard mean and deviation to set up the classification standard of prediction pollutant standard index, then presented a method which is called markov chain with weights to predict the future pollutant state by regarding the standardized self-coefficients as weights based on stochastic variable, this paper took 31 days＇ pollutant the special characteristics of prediction being a dependent standard Index of nanjing province from 2011.10.13 to 2011.11.12 for example to make a application with the method and got a pleasant result.