中国居民储蓄额影响因素研究分析

摘要

This paper aims to study the main factors affecting savings deposits of residents,and to establish appropriate statistical models. After analysis,the paper argues that there are three main factors:disposable income,interest rates and inflation rates. By multivariate statistical and econometric methods,this paper established a good regression model was obtained increment of income elasticity of household savings,in-terest rates elasticity and inflation elasticity. According to the spatial size of the change in factors that come in disposable income is the most important influence on household savings,followed by the inflation rate,the final interest rate. Finally,this paper also puts forward some reasonable conclusions based on pol-icy recommendations.%本文旨在研究影响我国居民储蓄存款的主要因素，并建立适当的统计模型。经分析，本文认为影响我国居民储蓄存款最主要的有三个因素：居民总的可支配收入、存款利率、通货膨胀率。通过多元统计与计量经济学的方法，本文建立了一个较好的回归模型，分别得到了我国居民储蓄增量的收入弹性、利率弹性和通货膨胀率弹性。根据因素变动的空间大小，得出可支配收入是对居民储蓄最重要的影响，其次是通货膨胀率，最后为利率。最后，本文还根据结论提出了一些合理的政策建议。