基于联立方程模型的 FDI、产业结构与碳排放互动关系研究

摘要

This paper estimated the carbon emissions based on principles of electricity (hot)carbon allocation by using the energy consumption data of China’s 30 provinces from 1997 to 2011 and ap-plied panel unit root and panel co-integration theory to analyze the relationship between regional FDI and carbon emissions by establishing the simultaneous equations including economic growth,carbon e-missions and FDI.The results show that each model’s co-integration relationship of the simultaneous equations is established and the directly elasticity regional FDI on regional carbon emissions is -0.001,the indirect elasticity is 0.146,the directly elasticity regional industrial structure on regional carbon emissions is 0.032 and the indirect elasticity is 1.882.The study further found that regional FDI,regional economic growth,regional industrial structure and regional energy intensity are impor-tant factors in promoting regional carbon emissions,and there is a two-way causal relationship between regional FDI,regional carbon emissions and regional economic growth.%通过中国30个省区1997—2012年能源消费数据，依据电（热）碳分摊原则测算出各省区的碳排放量，运用面板单位根和面板协整理论，建立了包含经济增长、碳排放以及外商直接投资在内的联立方程来分析区域 FDI 与二氧化碳排放的关系。结果表明：联立方程中每个模型的协整关系是成立的，区域 FDI 对区域碳排放的直接弹性是－0．001，间接弹性是0．146，区域产业结构对区域碳排放的直接弹性是0．032，间接弹性是1．882。研究进一步发现区域 FDI、区域经济增长、区域产业结构与区域能源强度都是促进区域碳排放的重要因素，并且区域 FDI 和区域碳排放量对区域经济增长呈现出双向的因果关系。