以某化工品罐区为研究对象,引入欧盟ARAMIS体系对该罐区进行系统风险的定量分析.在确定分析对象的设备类型及可能形成的关键事件的基础上,运用bow-tie图计算得到关键事件的概率；利用风险矩阵对该罐区可能形成的火灾事故进行事故场景的选择；以ARAMIS体系中脆弱度分析模型为基础分析该罐区中受体的脆弱度,进而得到特定事故情景下的定量风险分析结果.结果表明,该体系在事故风险表征及风险扩展分析方面具有较好的独到性,能够为化工区风险评估及优化提供相关技术支持.%ARAMIS(accidental risk assessment methodology for industries system) proposed in European Commission was introduced into the quantitative analysis of a chemical tank field.Based on the selection of equipment type and referred critical event,the probability of critical event was calculated by the establishment of bow-tie figure.Then accident scenario of fire of the tank field was determined according to the risk matrix which is coexisted by the probability and consequence of the accident.The target vulnerability of the plant surroundings was achieved by the models of the ARAMIS and the quantitative risk analysis results of specific accident scenarios were given.The results indicate that ARAMIS reveals good performance in the analysis of risk characteristic and risk expansion and it can provide the technique support for the risk assessment and optimization in chemical industry zones.
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