KooN表决结构多阶段马尔可夫模型简化算法

摘要

As the analysis process for the conventional multi-phase Markov ( CMM) model is complicated and the dimension explosion may occur, a simplified multi-phase Markov( SMM) approach is proposed in the present study. The numerical a-nalysis is performed to analyze the computational efficiency and accuracy based on this new method, CMM method and IEC61508 analytical formula. The results show that the calculation results by SMM are in good agreement with those of CMM, the former method maintains the calculation accuracy without complicated multi-phase Markov modeling procedure, making the failure probability calculation more quick and accurate.%针对传统多阶段马尔可夫模型CMM(conventional multi-phase Markov)在建模过程中存在分析过程复杂、维数爆炸等问题,提出一种多阶段马尔可夫模型简化算法SMM(simplified muti-phase Markov).对该方法与CMM方法、IEC61508解析式方法中的计算负荷与精度进行数值分析.结果表明:采用SMM方法的计算结果与CMM方法的基本一致,在维持计算精度的同时避免了CMM方法中复杂的多阶段马尔可夫建模过程,极大地降低了计算量,使得安全仪表系统中失效概率计算更加快速且准确.