气候变化和人类活动对流域径流的影响分析——以沙颍河为例

摘要

How to identify the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff has become a hot topic in recent years;it can provide scientific and application support for the catchment water resources planning and management.We analyzed the change characteristics of precipitation and runoff in the upstream catchment of the Shaying River during 1951-2010 by using the trend coefficient method and Mann-Kendall saltation method,and quantified the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff by the time series analysis method.The results show:In the study area,annual precipitation was relatively stable;while annual runoff changed severely and indicated a significant decreasing trend,and changed suddenly in the year 1965.Taking 1965 as the dividing year,runoff in the human activities induced period (1951-1964) decreased compared to the natural period (1965-2010),with climate change contributed to 35.45％ and human activities contributed to 64.55％;the influence varied during different years;but the human activities still played the main role for the decreasing of runoff.%如何定量区分气候变化以及人类活动对流域径流的影响已经成为当前研究的热点问题,该问题的研究可以为流域内水资源规划利用问题提供科学依据以及应用意义.利用趋势系数法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法分析了沙颍河上游区1951～2010年流域内降雨量以及径流深序列的变化特征,基于时间序列分析法量化了气候变化以及人类活动对流域内径流所造成的影响.结果显示:流域内年降雨变化相对稳定,而年径流深年际变化比较剧烈,呈现出显著的下降趋势,且在1965年发生突变;以1965年为界线,人类活动影响时期(1965～2010)相对于天然时期(1951～1964)径流量下降,其中气候变化所导致的影响占35.45％,人类活动的影响占64.55％,各个年代气候变化以及人类活动对径流的影响量不尽相同,但人类活动变化仍然是造成径流深降低的主要原因.