著作权侵权问题已成为网络服务提供者急需解决的重要问题之一。网络信息资源的著作权侵权风险作为一种数字化风险，其影响正通过特定途径扩散至网络信息资源的开发、利用和传播的各个层面，引发包括著作权纠纷在内的众多社会问题。文章首先基于风险传导理论和风险管理理论分析了网络信息资源著作权侵权风险的风险源、风险传导载体；然后构建了著作权侵权的风险传导模型，并以该模型为框架，通过节点及节点概率的确定、参数学习等步骤将理论模型转化为贝叶斯网络模型；最后在专家问卷的基础上对模型进行预测推理和诊断推理，详细探讨了网络信息资源著作权侵权风险传导问题。本研究有助于网络服务提供者及早发现和识别著作权侵权风险，做出科学合理的决策。%Copyright infringement has become one of the most urgent issues for the network service providers. As a kind of digitized risk, the risks of copyright infringement of network information resources have influenced all aspects of the development, application and dissemination of network information resources by some special paths to trigger a series of problems including the copyright disputes. This article firstly analyzes the resources and the carriers of the risks of copyright infringement by using the theories of risk conduction and risk management. Secondly, the model of risk conduction of copyright infringement is constructed. By using the nodes and their probabilities as well as the parameter learning, we transfer this model into a Bayesian network model. At last, the forecast and diagnosis based on the data of the expert questionnaire are carried out to explore the risk conduction of the copyright infringement. It is hoped that this research will help the network service providers to identify their risks of copyright infringement and make more rational and scientific decisions.
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