基于案例推理的铁路行车事故应急决策方法研究

摘要

为提高铁路行车事故应急处置能力,本文提出一种实用的行车事故应急决策方法,将案例推理(Case-based Reasoning,CBR)理论应用到铁路应急决策中。首先对铁路行车事故的案例表示、案例属性体系进行描述；其次,针对铁路行车事故案例属性值类型,考虑数值型、有序枚举型、无序枚举型、区间数型及模糊数型5种形式,给出不同形式属性值的局部相似度计算模型；然后,通过计算当前铁路行车事故与事故案例的各属性相似度,建立全局相似度计算模型；再次,提出当前铁路行车事故属性缺失时的全局相似度计算模型；最后,使用案例验证该方法可行且有效。%In order to provide a practical decision support method for making railway emergency decisions,the case-based reasoning (CBR)method was applied in railway emergency decision-making.The three key prob-lems of railway accidents,i.e.,case representation,attribute description and measurement of the similarity degree were studied.Combing the characteristics of railway accidents,case representations and case attribute systems were described.Considering the accident attributes of the numeric type,ordered enumeration type, disorderly enumeration type,interval number type and fuzzy number type,the calculation models of local simi-larity degrees corresponding to the above five types of attribute values were established one by one.On this ba-sis,through calculating the similarity degrees of the various attributes of current traffic accidents and accident cases,the calculation models of the global similarity degree of railway accidents were established.Then the cal-culation model of the global similarity degree was put forward in the case of having current accident attributes missing.Case study shows the proposed method is feasible and effective.