江河水沙变化趋势分析方法与比较

摘要

In order to analyze variation trends of water and sediment in the river effectively, the graphical analysis method and the statistical analysis method were analyzed and compared systematically in this pa-per, based on the existing research methods and using as case studies on the water and sediment changes in the Datong Station and the Yichang Station of the Yangtze River. It is suggested that the graphic analy-sis method and statistical analysis method should be combined to analyze the trend in river water and sedi-ment. For the graphic analysis methods such as the process line method, the sliding average line method and the cumulative curve analysis, the first two methods mainly reflect the variation process of water and sediment trend, while the third one can analyze the long-term trend. For the statistical analysis methods such as the Mann-Kendall method, the linear trend regression test, the Spearman rank correlation test and the cumulative filter method, the Mann-Kendall method is used more widely because of its simplicity and effectiveness in the process analyzing the water and sediment status.%为了有效地分析江河水沙变化趋势，在总结现有研究方法的基础上，以长江大通站和宜昌站的水沙变化为例，就江河水沙态势变化图示分析方法和统计分析方法进行了深入细致地分析与对比。在进行水沙序列的趋势性分析时，可采用一种图示分析方法和一种统计量分析方法相结合的手段；对于图示分析法中的过程线法、滑动平均线法和累积曲线法，前两种方法主要反映水沙态势变化过程，而累积曲线法主要用于分析水沙长期变化趋势；对于统计分析法中的Mann-Kendall法、线性趋势回归检验、Spearman秩次相关检验和累加滤波器法，Mann-Ken-dall法在水沙态势变化分析过程中简单有效，使用较为普遍。