基于淮河干流鲁台子站1951～2008年径流量资料,采用最小二乘法、PIII曲线法和小波分析方法系统分析鲁台子站径流量的变化特征.结果表明:汛期径流量占全年径流总量的64％,年际变化最大相差4.7倍;从线性趋势来看,年径流量减少速率为0.68× 108m3/a,其中汛期径流量减少速率为0.24× 108m3/a,非汛期径流量减少速率为0.44× 108m3/a,汛期径流量丰枯变化跟全年径流量相似程度高,非汛期径流量的年际波动较平稳;三种小波母函数对年径流序列周期分析结果略有差异,Mexcian hat小波检测结果偏宏观,Morlet小波和cmor2-1小波检测兼顾微观周期,cmor2-1小波更加准确全面反映径流周期变化,综合分析得出鲁台子年径流序列2年左右的主周期和8年左右的次周期.%Based on the runoff data of Lutaizi station on the Huaihe River from 1951 to 2008, using the least square method, PHI curve method and wavelet analysis method, we systematically analyzed the runoff characteristics. The results show that the flood season runoff account for 64% of the total annual, the max is 4.7 times bigger than the min. From linear trend, the annual runoff reduces at the rate of 0.68×10 8m3/a, in which the flood season runoff at 0.24×10 8m3/a, the non-flood season runoff at 0.44x1 CnrVa. For interannual variation, the flood season runoff is highly similar with the annual, non-flood season runoff is relatively stable. It shows slightly different on the annual runoff series periodic results of the three wavelet generating function: Mexcian hat wavelet results is partially macroscopic, both of the Morlet wavelet and cmor2-1 wavelet can also detect the micro cycle, cmor2-l wavelet more accurately and comprehensively reflects the runoff cycle. There are main periods of 2 years and 8 years of the second cycle hidden from the runoff of the Lutaizi station on the Huaihe River.
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