三峡上游大型水库逐渐增多,上游水库在蓄水期内的集中蓄水明显削减了中下游径流,导致蓄水期内用水矛盾突出,也增加了三峡水库蓄不满的机率,影响三峡水库综合效益的发挥.通过分不同水平年模拟上游已建、在建和拟建水库的长系列运行,比较各控制站长系列径流与天然径流的差别,重点分析三峡水库蓄水期各站径流受上游大型水库运行的影响.同时,在所得模拟后长系列的基础上,对三峡水库按既定蓄水规则模拟蓄水计算,分析不同水平年三峡水库的蓄水受上游大型水库蓄水的影响程度.%There are more and more large reservoirs being constructed in the upstream of The Three Gorge (TTG), and the concentrated reservoir storage in the upstream has significantly reduced flow in the middle and lower reaches during storage period, which leads to obvious contradictions between water supply and demand. Moreover, it increases the probability of non-full storage as well as affects the comprehensive benefit of TTG. In this paper, we simulated long-term operation of the built, being-built and to-be-built reservoirs in different years, and analyzed the differences between runoff and virgin flow for different controlling gauged stations, with special regard to the impacts of large reservoir operation at the gauged stations on the upper reaches during storage period. Furthermore, on the basis of the long-term simulation, the storage processes of TTG was calculated and simulated based on set rules, and the impact degree of the large-reservoir storage in the upstream on TTG was analyzed in different level years finally.
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