无锡站年际降雨趋势、特征与预报分析

摘要

针对近年极端灾害性气候频发的现状,对暖冬影响下无锡站降雨年际变化趋势、历史演变特征和近几年水文预报情况进行了分析.结果表明:在暖冬影响下,无锡站降雨年际间呈现出干旱—湿润周期性变化的特征,具有水文旋回的性质,在太湖地区有代表性,可作为该时段的降雨预报模型;该模型打破了年际降雨无规律的传统思维定式,与历史演变法相结合,能提高预报效率与精度;水文旋回的发现和降雨预报模型的建立,可推动水文气象长期预报与气候展望研究.%This paper analyzed the trend change,characteristics evolution and hydrological forecasting of the interannual rainfall at the Wuxi station under the influence of warm winters.The results show that under the influence of warm winters,there are drought-moist varying periods of the interannual rainfall at the Wuxi Station,with the characteristics of the hydrological cycle.With this characteristics as the representative in the Taihu Lake region,a rainfall prediction model can be developed,which will break the traditional thinking pattern that there is no regular for interannual rainfall,and improve the prediction efficiency and accuracy.