中心城市对城市群发展的影响研究--基于长三角城市群的分析

摘要

在区域城市群的发展中，中心城市往往起到了关键性作用，非中心城市通过接受中心城市的辐射和影响作用来实现自身的发展。通过对长三角两省一市城市群1996—2013年面板数据的实证分析，讨论中心城市对城市群发展的影响机制和渠道。回归结果显示，中心城市上海的经济发展对非中心城市具有显著的促进作用。从传导机制来看，这种促进作用主要通过人力资本和企业投资来实现，其中人力资本的影响更为重要。从供给和需求方面来看，中心城市对非中心城市的经济促进作用主要表现为其需求面的拉动性影响。变换样本量等相关的稳健性检验得到了一致的结果。%Central cities often play a key role in the development of regional urban agglomeration.Non-cen-tral cities achieve their own development by accepting the radiation and influences of central cities.It dis-cusses the influence mechanism and channel of central cities through an empirical study of panel data of two provinces and one city in Yangtze River Delta from 1996 to 2013.The regression result shows that the economic development of Shanghai has significant positive influences on non-central cities.In the aspect of transmission mechanism,the promotion is mainly achieved by human capital and firm investments,and human capital is a more important factor.In the aspect of demand and supply,promotion effects of central cities mainly come from the pulling effects in the demand side.The results of robustness checks by chan-ging variables support the above conclusions.