在简单的金融市场动态模型中,风险证券的价格是由做市商依赖于异质交易者的超额需求来制定的. 异质交易者即基本面分析者与技术分析者,他们的需求依赖于未来价格的不同期望:技术分析者采用几何衰减过程形成期望,而基本面分析者被假定了解经济环境并形成相应的信念.本文通过引入时变市场分数,建立三维动力学模型,分析其稳定区域及产生的分支,并讨论主要参数对模型稳定性的影响,得到影响市场稳定性的因素.%In a simple model of financial market trend, the prices of risk securities are determined by market makers who depend on the excess demand of heterogeneous traders. The heterogeneous traders include basic situation analysts and technology analysts, whose de-mands depend on different expectations about future prices:the former are assumed to know the economic environment and form their be-liefs accordingly, while the latter form their expectations using geometric attenuation process. This paper introduced the time-varying market fraction, built the three-dimensional dynamical system, analyzed its stability region and branches, and discussed the influence of key parameters on the stability of the model, so as to obtain the influencing factors of market stability.
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