基于GM(1,1)的华山松生长量预测研究

摘要

Based on the 94-year-old Pinus armandii resolve wood data,by using gray prediction GM model and DPS numerical analysis software,the forecast model of growth amount was set up and validated,thus resolving the forecasting difficult problem of tree growth volume.The results show that the grey model prediction value was C =0.2652 (good level),p =1.0000 (good level),so the GM (1,1) prediction model had a higher prediction accuracy,and was verified to be correctness,have stronger practical value in forecasting tree growth volume of Pinus armandii.%以94a树龄华山松Pinus armandii解析木数据为研究对象,利用GM(1.1)灰色预测模型,基于数值分析软件DPS,建立了华山松生长量预测模型并验证,解决了林木生长量的预测难题.灰色模型预测值C=0.2652(很好),p=1.0000(很好),结果表明GM(1,1)模型预测精度较高,预测可靠.验证了GM(1,1)灰色预测在林木生长量预测中应用的正确性,该模型在华山松生长量预测方面有较强的实际应用价值.