安徽省城镇化质量测度与时空分异研究

摘要

Urbanization is the result of multiple factors,such as population,economy,society,ecology and space.It is essential to coordinate the development of "quality" and "quantity" as well as "time" and "space".Taking Anhui Province as an example,urbanization quality estimation system is established from six dimensions including population development,economic development,social development,ecological environment,urban and rural integration development,and degree of opening.Then the urbanization level of 16 cities in Anhui province in 2005,2010 and 2014 are estimated based on the novel method of particle swarm optimization algorithm in combination of hierarchical cluster.The results indicate that:1) the urbanization quality in Anhui province was generally on the rise and the whole growth rate was 10.35％ from 2005 to 2014.The first-bottom difference (3.375 4,3.275 7,3.029 5),standard deviation (0.825 8,0.804 0,0.732 7) and coefficient of variation (54.19％,51.81％,43.57％) of urbani zation quality showed there was a gap between regions which was gradually reducing.2)The urbanization quality of Anhui province was divided into five types including high quality,higher quality,moderate quality,lower quality and low quality according to the projection values.It had a certain characteristic of spatial aggregation,exhibiting the spatial distribution pattern of "two high and two low".3) The economic development,social development,and ecological environment were the main driving factors of the development of urbanization quality.The results would be an important reference in formulating urbanization development strategy or promoting the coordinated development of the 16 cities in Anhui province.%城镇化是人口、经济、社会、生态和空间等多因素共同作用的结果,兼顾“质”与“量”、“时”与“空”的协调发展至关重要.该文以安徽省为研究区,从人口发展、经济发展、社会发展、生态环境、城乡统筹发展及开放程度6个维度构建城镇化质量评价指标体系,借助构建的基于粒子群优化投影寻踪和系统聚类相结合的城镇化质量测度的新方法,对安徽省16个地级市2005年、2010年、2014年的城镇化质量进行测度,研究结果表明:1)2005年～2014年安徽省城镇化质量不断提升,近10年的增长幅度为10.35％,3个研究时点各地级市城镇化质量的首末位差(3.375 4、3.2757、3.029 5)、标准差(0.825 8、0.804 0、0.732 7)和变异系数(54.19％、51.81％、43.57％)显示各地级市城镇化质量存在差距但逐渐缩小.2)根据城镇化质量投影值的变化将安徽省城镇化质量分为高质量、较高质量、中等质量、较低质量、低质量5种类型,空间上具有一定的聚集特征,呈现“两高两低”空间分布格局.3)经济发展、社会发展、生态环境是安徽省城镇化质量发展的主要驱动因素.研究结果对制定安徽省城镇化发展战略、促进16地市城镇化协调发展具有重要的参考意义.