社会经济的不断发展使得国民经济各部门间的联系日趋多元化，一类灾害的发生不仅会影响到某单个部门，更会通过部门间的关联效应进一步将这种影响延伸到与之关联的行业甚至整个经济系统。因此尝试改进单部门损失传导投入产出模型，通过引入多部门直接损失值，推导其他关联部门的因灾产业损失，并以2012年7月北京特大暴雨为例进行了实证分析。结果表明：北京“7.21”特大暴雨共造成88.1275亿元的总产出损失和31.3475亿元的增加值损失；相较于第三产业，加工制造业等高成本第二产业更易受暴雨灾害产业关联影响；部分行业增加值不降反增，一定程度上验证了Okuyama， Schumpeter等学者的判断———灾害虽然在一定程度上破坏了现有的社会经济基础，但在恢复和重建过程中会促进区域经济增长。%The development of social economy makes the connections among various departments of the na-tional economy become more and more diversified.Once a disaster happens, it will not only affect one certain de-partment but the related sectors and even the whole economy system, through the correlation effect among various departments.The single department loss conduction input-output model is tried to be improved, deducing other de-partments’ relevant losses by introducing multi affected sectors’ direct economic losses, and an empirical analysis is further done by using the rainstorm on July, 21st in Beijing as an example.The results show that, the heavy rain made a total of 8.8 billion production losses and 3.1 billion added value losses, and the second industry such as the high-cost processing and manufacturing industry is more vulnerable than the third industry when facing a rain-storm.However, part departments’ added value didn’ t fall but increased after the torrential rain, which, to some extent, verified the judgments by Okuyama, Schumpeter, etc, that is, disasters may do damage to the present so-cial and economic infrastructure, but it will promote regional economic growth in the long-run process of restoration and reconstruction.
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