云南省地质灾害精细化气象风险预警模型优化研究

摘要

In order to improve the running forewarning model used for meteorological risk warning of geologic hazard in Yunnan Province,the precipitation data from regional automatic weather stations in Nujiang were used to calculate critical indices,and the risk division of geologic hazard was updated by the disaster geographic informa-tion.According to the research,continuous precipitation was the main type of the rainfall-triggered geologic haz-ard,and the excitation of heavy rain in short term was very important.The geologic hazard had obviously regional distribution characteristics in Nujiang.It was found that the improved forewarning model had a better effect of appli-cation in 2015 events,and the rate of vacancy forecast for high risk warning was decreased significant.Based on the research the spatial resolution of the meteorological risk forewarning will be refined and enhanced.%以怒江州为例，采用区域加密自动气象站降水资料优化云南省目前业务应用的地质灾害气象风险预警模型，并根据灾情点的地理信息对地质灾害风险区划进行了更新。研究表明，怒江州降水型地质灾害以连续性降水导致的灾害为主，受到短期强降水的激发，并且地质灾害区域性分布明显。用2015年地质灾害实例对优化后的预警模型的预报效果进行检验，发现优化后的预警模型能有效降低原预警模型中高风险预警等级的空报率，提高风险预警的空间分辨率，使得预警服务效果更具备针对性。