城市燃气输配管网耦合风险研究现状及展望

摘要

The city as a complex system and its development is inseparable from energy,such as oil and natu-ral gas.Potential risk factors including human error,equipment failure,adverse environment,management defi-ciencies and other aspects are existence in running city gas pipeline network.At the same time the development of social and economic in city,highlight its vulnerability.Various risks of gas pipeline network coupled to each other and lead to disasters,and it will give rise to great damage and serious consequences.Accidents are common in Chi-na and abroad.In order to reduce the incidence of city gas pipeline network disasters from the perspective of multi-factor coupling,literature analysis of research status of city gas pipeline network disaster risk is adopted to uncover the deficiency.Based on analyzing a large number of domestic and overseas literatures about city gas pipeline net-work multi-factor coupling disaster risk,it is found that ①Research on the multi-factor coupling mechanism for dis-aster risk of city gas pipeline network are relatively sparse;②Research on the evolution of multi-factor coupling disaster risk about city gas pipeline network are lacking;③There are little research on assessment model of multi-factor coupling disaster risk about city gas pipeline network;④It is lack of research on the dynamic disaster risk management and control strategy of city gas pipeline.Finally,with the aim of addressing those problems,the paper puts forward the research direction on multi-factor coupling disaster risk of the city gas pipeline network in future,it provide a catalytic role for the development of disaster risk coupling theory and city safe operation and management.%城市作为一个复杂的系统，其发展离不开天燃气等动力能源，城市燃气管网运行存在来至人、设备、环境以及管理等各方面的风险隐患耦合作用，同时随着城市社会经济的发展，其凸显脆弱性，燃气管网各种风险相互耦合并引发事故灾难，将会对城市造成极大的破坏，相关事故在国内外屡见不鲜。为了减少城市燃气管网灾害事故的发生，从风险耦合的角度出发，对多因素耦合作用下城市燃气管网灾害风险的研究现状进行文献分析，从而发掘已有研究存在的不足。通过对国内外城市燃气管网耦合灾害风险的大量相关文献进行分析，发现过往研究存在以下问题：①当前对多因素耦合作用下的城市燃气管网的灾害风险作用机理进行的研究较少；②缺乏对城市燃气管网多因素耦合灾害风险演化规律的研究；③对城市燃气管网多因素耦合灾害风险评估模型的研究也较少；④也没有对城市燃气管网多因素耦合灾害风险的动态管控策略开展研究。针对此四方面的问题，最后提出了在城市复杂环境下，燃气管网面对多风险因素耦合作用时的研究方向，对多因素耦合灾害风险理论发展以及城市安全运行和管理起到促进作用。