结构调整、承载力提升能促进旅游经济增长吗？--以东部沿海三大经济区为例

摘要

With China’s Bohai coastal region,Yangtze river delta and Pan-pearl river delta coastal economic zone as the object of research,this paper evaluates and measures the three regions’tourism industry structure level and tourism ecological carrying index respectively from 2003 to 2012,and reveals the spatial difference of the coast-al three regions from the perspectives of structure and bearing capacity,then analyses and tests the effect of industri-al structure and bearing capacity on the tourism economic growth.The results show that three coastal regional tourism industrial structure transformed to rationality,the overall level of development is on the rise,but the Yangtze river delta and the Pearl river delta are instability,the fluctuation trend of tourism industry in Bohai Coastal region become smaller.The tourism ecology capacity of three regions has a slight increase,but tourism ecological demand is greater than the supply,it makes the three regions’tourism ecological in the deficit state,and the tourism ecological deficit is bigger and bigger,the promotion of tourism ecological carrying capacity and the tourism industry structure adjustment can effectively promote the tourism economic growth,but the positive effect of tourism industrial structure is greater than the tourist ecological carrying capacity.%以中国环渤海、长三角、泛珠三角三大沿海经济区为研究对象，分别对2003—2012年三大地区的旅游产业结构水平和旅游生态承载力指数进行测度和评价，并从结构和承载力视角，揭示沿海三大区域空间差异特征，进而分析和检验产业结构、承载力对旅游经济增长的作用。结果表明，2003—2012年中国沿海三大区域的旅游产业结构向合理化和高度化转化，总体发展水平呈上升趋势，但长三角、珠三角波动较大表现出不稳定性，环渤海地区旅游产业结构波动趋势逐渐变小。各地区旅游生态承载力略有提升，但旅游生态需求大于旅游生态供给，旅游生态处于赤字状态，旅游生态赤字越来越大；旅游生态承载力提升、旅游产业结构调整能够有效推动旅游经济增长，旅游产业结构的正向作用大于旅游生态承载力。