安徽省城乡居民消费对经济增长的影响分析

摘要

通过建立VAR模型测度了安徽省城乡居民消费对经济增长的影响效应，运用协整检验证明了安徽城乡居民消费与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系；然后通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解法分析得出，安徽省城镇居民消费是经济增长的格兰杰原因，在长期和短期内对经济增长都有明显的促进作用，而安徽省农村居民消费在短期对经济增长有一定的拉动作用，但长期拉动作用不明显。最后提出了扩大居民消费需求，促进安徽省经济增长的政策和建议。%It estimated the influence of the urban and rural residents′consumption on economic growth in Anhui province based on the VAR model , and cointegration test was used to prove that urban and rural residents′consumption have long term relationship with economic growth .Then Granger causality test , Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition Analysis were used to prove that consumption of urban residents in Anhui province is Granger cause of economic growth in both long term and short term economic growth ,significantly promoting economic growth in Anhui province .Although consumption of ru-ral residents has a role in boosting economic growth in the short term ,its influence in the long term will not significant .Finally,policy suggestion of stimulating consumption of residents was put forward to boost economic growth in Anhui province .