基于效用价值驱动的旅客出行动力学研究与建模

摘要

为了探究交通体系中旅客出行行为的特征与机理,以某机场离港旅客的陆侧出行数据为研究对象,对旅客出行模式进行了统计.分析发现,旅客聚集行为具有强烈的阵发性,不同出行维度旅客群体的聚集时间间隔分布具有幂律特征,且幂指数和阵发性强度呈正相关关系.同时,研究认为旅客出行换乘决策是综合时间、费用、便捷舒适度、突发情况等多因素的期望实现,是一种基于效用价值驱动的人类行为.基于此构建了效用价值驱动模式下的旅客出行行为动力学模型,可输出幂指数为参数可调的幂律分布,且仿真输出和实证数据分析结果相吻合.%In order to explore the characteristics and mechanism of passenger travel behavior in the traffic system,the statistical analysis of the passenger travel pattern is studied based on the actual airport departure of the landside passenger travel data.It is found that the behavior of passenger gathering has strong paroxysmal feature,the interval time distribution about different passenger groups has a power-law characteristic,and the power is proportional to the intensity of paroxysmal feature.Meanwhile,passenger traveling transfer decision-making is a kind of utility value driven human behavior considering many factors such as time,cost,conven-ience and comfort,and emergency.Accordingly,a utility value driven travel behavior dynamic model is pro-posed,from which power-law distribution with an adjustable power exponent can be obtained.The simulation results of the dynamic model are consistent with the analysis results of empirical data.