基于增强型BN的CTCS-1级ATP可靠性研究

摘要

结合CTCS-2级与CTCS-3级列控系统设计和运用经验,铁路总公司提出了CTCS-1级列控系统的研制需求,该系统车载ATP设备将取代LKJ与机车信号对既有线列车的控制.本文以CTCS-1级ATP为主要研究对象,对比分析模块级冗余与系统级冗余方案下CTCS-1级ATP系统可靠性.根据CTCS-1级列控系统总体技术方案,构建模块级冗余与系统级冗余ATP可靠性框图,建立对应增强型贝叶斯网络(BN)模型.借助增强型BN正向推理,求解两种设计方案下ATP可靠性定量指标,评估两种设计方案的优劣.利用增强型BN模型逆向推理,求解列车超速防护(ATP)设备故障下基本单元条件失效概率,查找两种冗余设计方案的潜在薄弱环节.评估结果表明:两种方案下CTCS-1级ATP RAM指标均满足需求规范要求,但采用模块级冗余设计的CTCS-1级ATP RAM指标更优;外围冷备模块条件失效率明显高于其他模块,为CTCS-1级ATP的薄弱环节.%China Railway Corporation has proposed the development requirements of CTCS-1 train control system based on design and application experience of CTCS-2 and CTCS-3 train control system.The vehicle ATP equipment in this system will replace LKJ and cab signal controlling the existing railway line.CTCS-1 ATP equipment is studied in this paper and comparative analysis of reliability of CTCS-1 ATP system is conducted between modular and system redundancy.Firstly,CTCS-1 ATP reliability block diagrams are established according to the integral technical scheme of CTCS-1 train control system.Correspondingly,the enhanced Bayesian network model is set up.Secondly,the quantitative reliability indexes of CTCS-1 ATP on the foundation of modular and system redundancy are obtained through forward reasoning of enhanced Bayesian network,then the advantages and disadvantages of these two designs are evaluated.Finally,the basic unit conditional failure probability of ATP equipment is obtained through the backward reasoning of enhanced Bayesian network,and the potential weak links of two redundancy designs are found out.The evaluation results show that the RAM indexes of CTCS-1 ATP under the condition of two redundancy designs can meet the requirements of Chinese train control system requirement specifications,but the RAM indicators of CTCS-1 ATP applying the modular redundancy design are better than those using the system redundancy design;and the conditional failure rate of peripheral cold standby module is higher than other modules,which is the weak link of CTCS-1 ATP.