碰撞速度和行人年龄对下肢严重损伤风险的影响

摘要

The lower extremity injury risks of pedestrian in real world accident were investigated. A subsample of 404 cases with pedestrian lower extremity injuries from the German In-Depth Accident Study (GIDAS) database were used to statistical analysis. Some logistic regression models of the risks for lower extremity AIS2+ injuries and tibia/fibula fractures were developed by means of vehicle impact speeds and pedestrian ages. The results show that impact speed and age are the two statistically significant predictors for pedestrians sustaining lower extremity AIS2+injuries and tibia/fibula fractures. In the selected sample, the lower extremity AIS2+ injury risk is 50% probability at the impact speed of 47.5 km/h. The tibia/fibula fracture injury risks are 50% at the impact speed of 64.5 km/h. The risk of injury increases with the increasing of age.%研究了真实交通事故中的行下肢损伤风险.应用了"德国深入事故调查研究"(GIDAS)数据库中的带有行人下肢损伤的404个案例,采用逻辑回归的方法,研究了汽车碰撞速度和行人年龄对行人下肢严重损伤(AIS2+)以及胫骨/腓骨骨折风险的影响.结果显示:碰撞速度和行人年龄都是影响行人下肢AIS2+损伤和胫骨/腓骨骨折风险的显著性因素.在所用样本中,当碰撞速度为47.5 km/h时,行人下肢AIS2+损伤风险为50%;当碰撞速度高达64.5 km/h时,胫骨/腓骨骨折风险为50%.同时,行人下肢损伤风险随着年龄的增大而增加.