辽河河口区湿地生态环境变化模拟预测

摘要

Given the features of the wetland complex system with multiple variables, higher-order, multi-loop and nonlinearity, using system dynamics to establish the Liaohe River estuary wetland simulation model of the environmental change to reveal the Liaohe River estuary wetland ' s ecological environment change and its influencing factors, the simulation results show that if at the current state of development, the ecological environment of the wetland will gradually deteriorate. In view of this, 4 ecological environment adjustment programs are designed, and using the model simulation and prediction of individual programs to provide management support and theoretical basis for the estuary wetland restoration, environmental health and ecological function.%鉴于湿地复合系统具有的多变量、高阶次、多回路和非线性的特点,运用系统动力学原理,建立辽河河口区湿地生态环境变化仿真模型.以揭示辽河河口区湿地生态环境状况的变化及其影响因素,模拟结果表明,如按现有状态发展,湿地生态环境状况将逐渐恶化.鉴于此,设计4个生态环境状况调整方案,并利用所建模型对各个方案进行模拟预测,以期为河口区湿地生态环境健康和生态功能恢复提供管理技术支持和理论依据.