财政支农支出与农业产值·农民收入的动态关系分析

摘要

Applying cointegration test, impulse response function and variance decomposition to study the dynamic relationship about fiscal ex penditure on agriculture, agricultural output and farmers' income during 1978 - 2009. The results indicate that fiscal expenditure on agriculture greatly promoted agricultural output and farmers' income in the long view. But in the short time, this promotion was not obvious. Also, agricul tural output had a small effect on farmers' income and fiscal expenditure on agriculture, and farmers' income greatly promoted agricultural out put and fiscal expenditure on agriculture.%运用协整检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法对1978 - 2009年中国财政支农支出、农业产值与农村居民家庭人均纯收入的动态关系进行了经验研究.结果表明,长期来看,政府支农支出对农业产值和农民收入有很强的促进作用；但短期来看,这种促进作用不明显,同时农业产值对农民收入和政府支农支出的促进作用也较小,而农民收入对农业产值和政府支农支出的促进作用则较大.