基于马尔可夫模型的贺州市旱涝预测系统研究

摘要

基于贺州市历史观测的降水数据对马尔可夫模型进行了研究和改进,并利用VC++、VB等计算机语言,开发了贺州市旱涝预测系统,实现了业务化应用.结果表明,在月尺度、季尺度和年尺度上,该模型都有较好的预测能力.%Based on historical observed precipitation data in Hezhou, the Markov model was studied and improved,and using VC + + ,VB and other computer language, drought and flood forecasting system of Hezhou was developed and applied the business application. The results show that the model has better forecasting ability in the month scale,the season scale and the year scale.