Based on the facts that the climate wanning, rice grow wider, grow bourn move to the north of Heilongjiang Province, annual average temperature from 1961 to 2008 in Heilongjiang Province was mutably verified by using Mann-Kendall statistics and verification methods, and take climate wanning1 s mutating point as the time node, used the Heilongjiang Province rice growth observed data (development period, biomass, grow variety, ripe type) and contemporary meteorological data, combined with local actual grow situation, divides the WOFOST model rice being suitable area, improved original growth parameter, carried out WOFOST model dynamic application on Heilongjiang Province rice growth simulation. At the same time, discussed the method of rice yield dynamic forecast by using WOFOST model, set up different perio d* s relating statistic model between rice simulating biomass and true yield, carried out WOFOST model application on rice yield dynamic forecast. Through verifying history forecast from 1997 to 2006 and forecast experiment from 2007 to 2008, the results indicated that average accuracy rate of rice history forecast verification yield per unit area on June 30, July 31 and August 31 are 96% , 93% , 94% respectively, average accuracy rate of the forecast experiment yield per unit area are 93% , 95% and 95% respectively; the rice output dynamic and the quota forecast were realized, that may carry on the service application.%基于黑龙江省气候变暖、水稻种植范围扩大、种植界限北移等事实,利用Mann-Kendall统计检验方法对1961 ～2008年黑龙江省的年平均气温进行了突变性检验,并以气候变暖的突变点为时间节点,利用黑龙江省水稻生长发育观测资料(发育期、生物量、种植品种、熟型)和同期的气象资料,结合当地的实际种植情况,重新划分WOFOST模型水稻适宜区,改进原有发育参数,实现了WOFOST模型在黑龙江省水稻生长模拟中的动态化应用.同时,探讨了利用WOFOST模型进行水稻产量动态预报的方法,通过建立不同时期水稻模拟生物量与实际产量的相关统计模型,实现了WOFOST模型在水稻产量动态预报业务中的应用.通过对1997～2006年历史预报检验和2007～2008年预报试验,结果表明,6月30日、7月31日、8月31日水稻历史预报检验单产平均准确率分别为96％、93％、94％,预报试验单产平均准确率分别为93％、95％、95％；实现了水稻产量的动态、定量预报,可进行业务应用.
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