辽宁朝阳地区近58年汛期降水变化特征分析

摘要

利用线性趋势、Mann-Kendall非参数相关检验、距平累积和有序聚类分析等方法,对朝阳地区1953 ～ 2010年汛期降水量的序列资料进行趋势检验、周期变化及突变点分析.结果表明,朝阳地区汛期降水量存在显著的递减趋势,倾向率为-12.56 mm/10a,存在8～9年的周期变化和18年的准周期变化,且在1980年发生显著突变,在此之后,年平均降水量减少了12.5％.非汛期降水量变化较平稳,有微弱的增加趋势.%By adopting the methods of linear trend, Mann-Kendall nonparametric correlation test, anomalies accumulate and cluster analysis, sequence data trend, periodic changes and mutations of the precipitation during the flood season of Chaoyang in Liaoning Province from 1953 to 2010 were analyzed. As indicated by the results, the rainfall amount was decreasing at the rate of - 12.56 mm/10a,showing 8 -9a periodic change and 18a quasi-periodic changes, significant mutations occurred in 1980, thereafter the annual average precipitation decreased by 12. 5%. Non-flood season precipitation was stable with a slight increase.