[目的]研究精细化气候预测产品的制作方法及效果检验.[方法]以国家地面观测标准资料和来用距离权重插值法获得的二级资料库为依据.建立气候预报模型,集合多种预报方法和人工订正,做出定时、定点、定量的气象要素精细化气候预报,并参照气象部门制定的相关评分标准,对预报效果进行检验.[结果]目前,广州市精细化气候预测系统常用于制作该市10个站点的6个气象要素(平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、雨量、平均气压、日照)的逐日、侯、旬、月、季、年的气候预测.对近5年(2006～2010年)广州市10个站点的气象要素预报效果进行了检验,预报检验平均得分为:月雨量75.0分,月平均气温94.5分,月最高气温98.6分,月最低气温88.9分;旬雨量77.1分,旬平均气温90.6分,旬最高气温90.1分,旬最低气温82.8分,均达到广东省气象台的目标管理要求.[结论]该系统可广泛应用于农业气侯灾害预报以及大型水库、新机场、核电站等定点预报.%[ Objective ] The aim was to study the making method of meticulous climate forecast product and test its forecast effect. [ Method ] Based on national standard surface observation data and the secondary data bank obtained by means of distance weight interpolation method,the model of climate forecast was established, and the timing, fixed-point and quantitative meticulous climatic forecast of meteorological elements was carried out by using many forecast methods and artificial revision, finally, forecast effect was tested. [ Result] At present, meticulous climate forecast system was used to predict the daily, five-day, ten-day, monthly, seasonal and annual variation of six meteorological elements (average temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, average pressure, sunshine) in 10 stations in Guangzhou City. The forecast effect of meteorological elements in 10 stations in Guangzhou City in recent five years (from 2006 to 2010) was tested, and the average scores of monthly precipitation, average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were 75.0,94.5, 98.6 and 88.9, respectively, while their five-day scores were 77.1, 90.6, 90.1 and 82.8, which met the requirement of objective management of Guangdong Meteorological Observatory. [ Conclusion] Meticulous climate forecast system could be widely used in the forecast of agricultural meteorological disasters and fixed-point forecast in large reservoir, new airport and nuclear power station.
展开▼
