基于灰色系统理论的加工番茄产量预测模型研究

摘要

[目的]研究基于灰色系统理论的加工番茄产量预测模型.[方法]运用灰色系统理论研究了加工番茄产量变化趋势,建立了加工番茄产量预测的GM(1,1)灰模型,并以2001～2009年新疆加工番茄产量为例,进行了实例分析.[结果]该模型有较高的预测精度和较强的泛化能力,对近期加工番茄产量的预测是可靠的.[结论]为新疆地区番茄产业的宏观调控、番茄加工及储藏等方面提供了参考.%[ Objective ] The research aimed to study the yield prediction model of processing tomato based on the grey system model. [ Method ] The variation trend of processing tomato yield was studied by using the grey system theory, and GM ( 1,1 ) grey model of processing tomato yield prediction was established. The processing tomato yield in Xinjiang during 2001 - 2009 as the example, the instance analysis was carried out. [ Result ] The model had the high forecast accuracy and strong generalization ability, and was reliable for the prediction of recent processing tomato yield. [ Conclusion ] The research provided the reference for the macro - control of tomato industry, the processing and storage of tomato in Xinjiang.