近49年辽阳市玉米生长季气候变化特征及其对产量的影响

摘要

[ Objective] Characteristics of climate change during maize growing period and its impacts on the output in Liaoyang City in recent 49 years were analyzed. [ Method ] Air temperature, precipitation, sunshine, etc. of maize sowing time, vegetative stage and reproductive stage in Liaoyang during 1961 -2009 were standardized, and these meteorological data after standardizing and maize yield data were compared and analyzed by using liner trend imitate, moving average, etc.. [ Result] The average temperature of each period of maize growing season in recent 49 years were on the rise, the temperature of vegetative and reproductive stage was obvious; precipitation changed little in the sowing time, vegetative and reproductive stage were on the decrease; sunshine throughout the growing season showed the decreasing trend. No matter in which the growth period, the rise of temperature had certain promotion effect on the rise of maize unit yield; the reduction of precipitation and sunlight caused a small cut or increase slowly in recent 4 years. [ Conclusion] It provided reference basis for the leadership of government and agriculture section to arrange and command agricultural production scientifically, make the most use of temperature and light, water resources and forecast maize yield accurately.%[目的]分析近49年辽宁省玉米生长季气候变化特征及其对产量的影响.[方法]利用线性趋势模拟、滑动平均等方法,将标准化后的1961～2009年辽阳市玉米播种期、营养生长期及生殖生长期气温、降水、日照等气象资料和玉米单产资料进行对比分析.[结果]近49年玉米生长季各个时期平均气温均呈上升趋势,营养生长和生殖生长期增温明显;降水在播种期变化不大,在营养生长和生殖生长期呈减少趋势;日照在整个生长季均呈减少趋势.无论在哪个生长时期,气温的升高对玉米产量的增加都起到了一定的促进作用;降水和日照的减少是造成近4年玉米小幅减产或增产缓慢的原因.[结论]该研究为政府和农业部门领导科学安排指挥农业生产,充分利用温、光、水资源及准确预报玉米产量提供参考依据.