基于粮食安全的耕地保护研究——以辽宁省鞍山市为例

摘要

The quantity and quality of farmland is the key factor determining grain production capacity, so protecting farmland has become the key to guaranteeing food security. Anshan City in Liaoning Province is taken as the study area, which has its own particularity in terms of protecting farmland. Based on the prediction of population, coupled with the relevant data concerning farmland area, the per unit area yield of grain, the prediction and analysis of the balance of supply and demand of farmland in Anshan City are conducted. The results show that in the year 2010, the maximum supply amount of farmland that the city can offer is 239 000 hm2 , and in the year 2020 the maximum supply amount of farmland that the city can offer will be 238 000hm2; in the year 2010, the maximum demand amount of farmland is 204 186.02 hm2, and in the year 2020 the maximum supply amount of farmland will be 226 409.61 hm2. So the supply amount of farmland that the city can offer can meet the need of grain production objective.%耕地的数量和质量是粮食生产能力的核心要素,保护耕地已成为保障粮食安全的关键.辽宁省鞍山市作为研究区域,在耕地保护方面具有其特殊性.在人口预测的基础上,结合耕地面积、粮食单产等有关数据分析,预测规划目标年(2010和2020年)的耕地需求量,为基于粮食安全模式下的耕地保护提供有益探索.结果表明,2010年鞍山市耕地最大可供给量为239 000 hm2,2020年耕地最大可供给量为238 000 hm2,2010年鞍山市耕地需求量为204 186.02 hm2;到2020年鞍山市耕地需求量为226 409.61 hm2.因此,鞍山市耕地可供给量可以满足粮食生产目标.