趋势面分析方法在农业需水量预测中的应用

摘要

With agricultural water demand of Yuncheng City,Shanxi Province from 1999 to 2010 as the dependent variable,and the corresponding sowing area and yield as the independent variable,the agricultural water demand variation trend surface model was established,the fitting degree of different order trend surface model was tested,the trend surface and residual contour map were drawed. The analysis showed that the trend sin)-face analysis method could be userj in analyzing the general trend of agriculture water demand variation, the corresponding agriculture water de-mand could be predicted through forecasting sowing area and yield in the future by using the trend surface model.%以山西省运城市1999～2009年农业需水量为因变量,相应播种面积和产量为自变量,建立了农业需水量变化趋势面模型,对不同阶次趋势面模型的拟合程度进行检验,并绘制了趋势面和残差等值线图.经分析得出,趋势面分析方法可以用于分析农业需水量变化的总趋势,并可用已建立的趋势面模型,通过预测该市未来年份的播种面积和产量来预测相应的农业需水量.