甘肃省土地利用碳排放变化及影响因素分解

摘要

Objective] The study aimed to study carbon emission and the influence factors of carbon emission from various types of land in land use.[Method]Taking Gansu province as a case, based on the analysis of land use structure change from 1995 to 2012, estimating the carbon emissions of various land use types and its influence factors are analyzed using LMDI model.Research shows that Overall, the change of land use structure from 1995 to 2012 illustrates an increasing trend of construction land area and a decreasing trend of farmland area .The in-ternal structure change of construction land for residential areas and mining land area is increasing, traffic land use changes significantly.1995-2012 general land use carbon emissions is on the rise, increased from 18.820 7 million tons in 1995 to 75.032 3 million tons in 2012, an average annual increase of 3.414 8 million tons.The largest carbon intensity of land use are residential areas and mining land areas, traffic carbon intensity is slowly rising, but fell by 2012.The change of land use, the improvement of economic development, the expand of popula-tion scale, enhance the land use carbon emissions.The promotion of energy efficiency and the optimization of energy structure inhibit land use carbon emissions.[ Conclusion] The residential and industrial sites have the greatest impact on the change trend of the total land use in Gansu province.Energy efficiency and energy structure optimization will be one of the important ways of carbon emission reduction in Gansu Province in the future.%[目的]研究土地利用中各类型土地的碳排放量及各土地利用碳排放的影响因素。[方法]以甘肃省为例，在分析1995—2012年土地利用结构变化的基础上，估算了各种土地利用类型的碳排放量，并运用LMDI模型对其影响因素进行了分析。[结果]土地利用结构变化总体表现为建设用地面积持续增加，农用地面积减少；建设用地内部结构变化中居民点及工矿用地面积增加最多，交通用地变化幅度显著；土地利用碳排放量总体呈上升趋势，由1995年的1882．07×104 t增加到2012年的7503．23×104 t ，年均增加341．48×104 t；土地利用碳排放强度最大的是居民点及工矿用地，交通用地碳排放强度呈缓慢上升态势，但到2012年有所下降；土地利用变化、经济发展水平提高、人口规模增加促进了土地利用的碳排放，能源效率提高和能源结构优化抑制了土地利用的碳排放。[结论]对甘肃省土地利用碳排放总量的变化趋势影响最大的是居民点及工矿用地，能源效率提高和能源结构优化是今后甘肃省碳减排的重要途径之一。