基于ESDA的江苏省人均GDP时空演变研究

摘要

以江苏省为研究对象，基于探索性数据分析和地理加权回归分析方法，分4个时期定量探究2003～2014年江苏省人均GDP空间分异的空间集聚程度和时空演变特征，讨论固定资产投资、工业总产值、人口密度和常住人口与江苏省人均GDP的空间相关关系，以此为依据剖析江苏省的人均GDP空间组织结构特征。结果表明：江苏省人均GDP在空间上表现出较强的集聚性，空间布局异质性较强、差异性显著；4个驱动因素对人均GDP的影响程度由大到小依次为常住人口、人口密度、工业总产值、固定生产总值。其中，常住人口与人口密度对江苏省人均GDP的影响作用较大，影响强度由北部向南部城市逐渐递增。江苏省未来的发展政策应当加强区域合作，积极推进南北产业转移，整合各种区域要素和空间结构，力争实现区域经济的统筹协调发展。%Taking Jiangsu Province as the research object, this article explored the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of per capita GDP in Jiangsu Province from 2003 to 2012 , based on the spatial econometric methods of ESDA and GWR .We also discussed the spatial correla-tion between fixed-asset investment, total industrial output value, population density and permanent resident population and the per capita GDP of Jiangsu Province, in terms of which we analyzed the structure characteristics of GDP spatial structure in Jiangsu Province .The results showed that the per capita GDP in Jiangsu Province demonstrated a strong agglomeration in space , and the heterogeneity and differences of spatial distribution between regions were notable .The impact degrees of the four driving factors for the per capita GDP was permanent resident population >popula-tion density >total industrial output value >fixed assets investment, among which, permanent resident population and population density had a bigger influence on the development of the per capita GDP of Jiangsu Province , and the effect intensity increased from northwest regions to southeast regions.Based on the research results, the development policy of Jiangsu Province in the future should put an emphasis on strengthe-ning the regional cooperation, actively promoting the industrial transfer of the South and North, and integrating all kinds of regional factors and spatial structure, so as to realize the coordinated development of regional economy.