新风险因素与传统风险因素间关系初探——以中国县级单元人口城市化与自然灾害之间的关系为例

摘要

以中国为例,选取近20年中的3个截面数据即采用1991、2000、2009年中国县级人口数据(含农村人口、城镇人口、总人口),通过计算人口城市化率,做出3个年份中国县级城市化率图,并将其与中国灾害区划或某种特定的自然灾害危险度图、易损度图和风险图如旱灾、暴雨等叠加进行,分析人口变动与自然灾害的相关性,揭示人口城市化所带来的灾害效应大小,从而可以为中国自然灾害链的区域规律指导下的灾害链风险评估提供依据,为研究新的风险因素和传统风险因素之间的关系打下基础.在人类社会发展中把防范各种风险及发展绿色经济紧密的结合起来(即可持续发展),最终达到天人合一的目的.%Taking China as the example,select three sets of cross-section data in recent two decades,namely China's county-level population data (covering rural population,urban population and total population) in 1991,2000 and 2009 and compute the rates of population urbanization to make a diagram of urbanization rates of China' s county-level cities in the three years. And combine the diagram with China' s disaster plans or diagrams of danger degree,vulnerability and risks of a specific natural disaster,such as drought and rainstorm,to analyze the correlation be-tween population changes and natural disasters and reveal the disaster effects of population urbanization,thereby providing a basis for disaster chain risk assessment guided by regional rules of China' s natural disaster chain,and laying a solid foundation for studying relations between new risk factors and traditional risk factors. So that,risks governance can be perfectly combined with developing the green economy during the develop-ment of human society (sustainable development),and ultimately the goal of harmony between human and nature can be achieved.