近50年宣城地区气候变化特征

摘要

利用1961-2010年宣城地区气象观测资料,采用线性趋势、滑动平均和R/S分析等方法,对近50年来宣城地区平均气温、降水量和日照时数的变化特征进行分析.结果表明,近50年来宣城地区年平均气温逐渐升高,尤其是秋季气温异常偏高;年降水量有所增加,日照时数呈现明显的减少趋势;年平均气温、四季气温、夏季降水、秋季降水均存在赫斯特现象,未来的年平均气温、四季气温和夏、秋季的降水量将继续保持上升趋势.%Using the meteorological observation data of Xuancheng area from 1961 to 2010,the change of the average temperature,precipitation and sunshine hours in Xuancheng area was analyzed by linear trend,sliding average and R/S analysis.The results showed that the annual average temperature in Xuancheng area had been increasing in recent 50 years,especially in autumn.Annual precipitation had increased,sunshine hours showed a significant reduction trend.Annual average temperature,four seasons temperature,summer precipitation and autumn precipitation were Hurst phenomenon,the annual average temperature,seasonal temperature,summer precipitation and autumn precipitation will continue to maintain an upward trend in the future.