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重庆市碳排放现状及影响因素研究

             

摘要

The emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas is a major contributor to global warming, reducing carbon emissions has become a consensus for people. But, where does the carbon emissions come from, what factors affect the amount of carbon emissions, how do we reduce emissions? These are the first thing we should understand. Taking Chongqing as an example, this paper specifically researches the impact of structural and technical factors on carbon emission intensity. First, calculate the amount and intensity of carbon emissions of three major industries of Chongqing during 2005-2012; Secondly, decompose the total carbon emissions intensity through constructing a mode, in order to study the effects from the changes of industrial structure and technological progress on the total carbon emissions intensity. The result shows that the amount of total carbon emissions presented a rising trend during the years of 2005-2012 in Chongqing, but the total carbon emission intensity has been declining, the declination is mainly caused by technical factors, and structural factors mainly play a negative role on the total carbon emissions intensity. Therefore, Chongqing should speed up the transformation of development mode, actively adjust the internal structure of the second industry, also needs to develop low carbon technologies and the third industry.%二氧化碳等温室气体的排放是导致全球变暖的主要原因,降低碳排放已经成为人们的共识。但碳排放来自哪里,碳排放量的多少与哪些因素有关,该如何减排?这些是首先应该弄明白的问题。本文以重庆市为例,具体研究影响碳排放强度的结构因素和技术因素。首先,计算出重庆市2005—2012年三大产业的碳排放量和碳排放强度;其次,通过构建模型将总体碳排放强度进行分解,以此来研究产业结构变动和技术进步对总体碳排放强度的影响。结果表明,重庆市碳排放总量在2005—2012年间呈不断上升的趋势,但总体碳排放强度却一直在下降,其下降主要是技术因素所引起的,而结构因素对总体碳排放强度主要起负面作用。因此,重庆市应加快转变发展方式,积极调整第二产业的内部结构,同时还需大力发展低碳技术及第三产业。

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