江西省是地质灾害易发多发地区,为摸清地质灾害气象监测预警服务能力现状、服务需求,评估气象监测预警服务在地质灾害防御中产生的效益,选取了4个近几年发生的地质灾害典型案例,综合运用德尔菲法和对比分析法,对气象服务情况进行调查与分析评估,结果表明:地质灾害气象监测预警服务效益贡献率为44. 03%,减少人员伤亡贡献率为67. 76%. 通过气象服务效益评估发现问题,总结服务经验,挖掘服务需求,为改进地质灾害气象监测预警服务业务、提高服务能力和水平提供参考依据.%Jiangxi Province is a region prone to geological disasters. In order to find out the present situation of the meteorological monitoring and warning service capabilities and the service demands to geological disasters, and assess the benefits of the meteorological monitoring and warning services produced in the geological disaster prevention,the meteorological services of 4 typical cases of geo-logical disasters in recent years are investigated and analyzed by integrated applying the Delphi method and comparative analysis. The results show:The meteorological monitoring and warning serv-ice benefits′contribution to the geological disaster prevention accounted for 44. 03%,and 67. 76% to reducing casualties. By means of the meteorological service benefit assessment,problems were found, service experiences summed up and service demands excavated. Thus it provides references for im-proving the services capability and level of monitoring and warning meteorological in geological disas-ters.
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