辽宁省朝阳市冰雹天气潜势预报研究

摘要

In order to provide the nec-essary reference for hail suppression and disaster reduction, and reduce harm caused by hail, using the data of conven-tional sounding during May to September from 1998 to 2012, the physical param-eters was studied that may affect the for-mation of hail in this paper. The hail po-tential prediction equation was also es-tablished by using the bayes discrimi-nant analysis and the multi indictor su-perposition. It is found out that the pre-diction equation based on multi indictor superposition had a much higher accura-cy than the other. This showed that multi indictor superposition was the best method for hail potential predicting in Chaoyang.%为给防雹减灾工作提供必要的参考依据，减少冰雹对农业生产造成的影响，利用上海探空订正软件SANDS分析了1998—2012年5—9月朝阳地区冰雹天气发生和不发生时的13个探空物理量，尝试用Bayes判别分析法和指标叠套法2种方法选出预报因子，并分别建立了冰雹天气潜势预报方程。利用各个预报方程分别回报所有历史样本，结果发现，指标叠套法预报效果较好，因此，指标叠套法最适合用于朝阳地区冰雹天气潜势预报。