设施番茄果实生长及产量形成模拟模型

摘要

为探明番茄果实生长与温度、光照的关系以及建立番茄产量预测的新方法,该研究对不同播期、品种、氮素水平及茬口的试验数据进行处理,构建了反映果实生长与温度、光照关系的果实横、纵径生长模型,以及果实干物质机理性模型和果实鲜重与横、纵径关系的线性模型,并建立了以上述模型为基础的番茄产量预测模型.运用独立数据对产量模型进行验证,结果显示:在不同氮素水平下,当利用干物质机理性模型模拟番茄产量时,模拟值与实测值的RMSE和ADe都小于30 g(每株)；当用果实横径经验性模型模拟番茄产量时,RMSE和ADe都小于35 g(每株)；当用果实纵径经验性模型模拟番茄产量时,RMSE和ADe都小于40 g(每株).表明番茄产量模型均具有较高的预测精度,能够很好地模拟番茄产量,可为设施番茄生产提供理论依据和决策支持,其中利用果实横、纵径的线性关系模型来预测番茄产量,具有参数少、不破坏果实活体、实用性强等特点.%To find out the relationship between tomato fruit growth and environment factors such as temperature and light, and to find a new way to predict tomato yield, according to the data analyses of seeding dates, tomato varieties, nitrogen application rates and crops in rotation, some models were established, such as the growth model of the fruit transverse and vertical diameters which reflects the relationship between fruit growth and temperature, light, the mechanism model of fruit dry matter, and the linear model of the relationship between fruit fresh weight and the transverse diameter or the vertical diameter. The yield prediction model for tomato was established as well based on the above models. Independent data was employed to verify the yield model. The result indicated that the yield model with high precision could be used to predict the fruit yield and provide a theoretical basis and decision support for the production of facility-based tomato. The growth model of fruit transverse and vertical diameters performed better in tomato fruit yield prediction due to fewer parame-ters needed and no fruits destruction.