Using 60 the ground meteorological stations observation data of Jiangsu province from 1961 to 2012 and data of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios simulated by RegCM4.0 regional climate model, the change trend of agri-cultural climate resources in recent 52 years of Jiangsu province was analyzed and the change characteristics in the future period( 2015-2050) were forecasted. The result showed that:Nearly 52 years, the solar total radiation decreased by 2. 78 MJ/m2 , the accumulated temperature increased in the case of≥0℃, and the climatic tendency was 89℃ every ten year. Precipitation and reference crop evapotranspiration fluctuated significantly, the average precipitation in the 1970s and the average reference crop evapotranspiration in the 1980s were the lowest. Compared with the baseline climate condition ( 1961-2005 ) , the accumulated temperature in the case of ≥0 ℃ and the sun total radiation increased in the two future climate scenarios. Precipitation in the most parts of the province increased in the RCP4. 5 scenario and de-creased in the RCP8.5 scenario. The reference crop evapo-ration in two scenarios showed the same trend. However, the water surplus-deficient in two scenarios showed a significant difference, and there was a significant water shortage in the RCP8.5 scenario in the north of Jiangsu province. These results can provide scientific guidance for the utilization of agricul-tural climate resources, agricultural production and layout in Jiangsu area.%利用江苏省60个气象台站1961-2012年地面气象观测资料与RegCM4.0区域气候模式模拟的RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下数据,分析江苏省近52年的农业气候资源的变化趋势并预估未来时段(2015-2050)光、温、水等农业气候资源的变化特征.结果表明:近52年,太阳总辐射呈下降趋势,变化率为-2.78 MJ/m2,≥0℃活动积温呈上升趋势,气候倾向率变化为每10年89℃,降水量和参考作物蒸散量年际波动明显,其中1970s的平均降水量和1980s的平均参考作物蒸散量最少.与基准气候相比(1961-2005年),未来2种气候情景下≥0℃活动积温、太阳总辐射均呈递增趋势;全省大部分地区降水量在RCP4.5情景下呈现递增趋势,RCP8.5情景下呈现递减趋势,参考作物蒸散量在2种情景下大体变化趋势一致,2种情景下水分盈亏差异较大,其中RCP8.5情景下苏北地区水分短缺显著.研究结果可为江苏省农业气候资源利用、农业生产和布局提供科学指导.
展开▼
