江苏省对外直接投资的贸易规模效应分析

摘要

本文运用面板协整检验和Granger因果检验，对2008－2014年江苏省对外直接投资的贸易规模效应进行了实证研究。结果表明：江苏省对外直接投资具有正的进出口效应，但是效应不明显。江苏省对外直接投资与江苏省出口、进口之间存在着单向的因果反馈关系。根据检验结果，本文进一步讨论了这些结果的深层次原因以及提出了相应的政策建议。%This paper makes research on panel data of OFDI in Jiangsu Province and import and export trade of 20 destination states from 2008-2014 by using co-integration test and Granger causality test. Results show:(1) OFDI in Jiangsu Province has a positive effect on import and export, however it is not obvious. (2)There is a one-way causal relationship between OFDI and export and import trade. Moreover, reasons and corresponding recom-mendations are analyzed basing on test.