Certain trade theory hold that the improved terms of trade would increase net exports of a nation and benefits the current account. But in reality, many countries' data indicate that trade surplus increases with a trend of worsening terms of trade. There exist two different viewpoints on whether China belongs to the category of deteriorating terms of trade growth mode. This paper tries to discuss the main factors affecting current account by deriving an overlapping-generation model. Empirical analysis with annually and monthly macro eco- nomic data proves that deterioration of terms of trade indeed benefits the current account. Simultaneously, some other factors such as increasing output of tradable goods and bond yields also influence the current account to a large extent.%传统贸易理论认为贸易条件的改善会扩大净出口、使经常项目盈余增加;现实中很多国家的表现却是贸易条件不断恶化、而贸易盈余不断增加。对我国是否属于这种贸易条件恶化型的增长模式存在两种截然不同的观点。本文通过建立oGM模型分析经常项目的主要影响因素,分别利用我国年度与月度相关宏观数据的实证分析表明,中国确实呈现贸易条件恶化型的增长模式,同时贸易品产出的增加、债券收益率的提高、本币的贬值等也在很大程度上影响着经常项目盈余的变化。
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