煤矿灾害预警影响因素仿真分析

摘要

Aimed at the problems existed in the coal mine disaster warning ,firstly the interpretative structural modeling is used to analyze mutual relations between the influencing factors ;then ,system dynamics theory and methods are used to simulate and analyze dynamically the effect factors of coal mine disaster warning ,and comparatively analyze the influence degree of factors increase to the warning level ,finding out the actual action rate of factors to overall level in the disaster warning .The simulation results can help coal mine to take corresponding warning management measures and meanwhile pro -vide a new thinking for coal mine safety management .%针对煤矿灾害预警过程存在的问题，首先运用解释结构模型分析各影响因素之间的相互关系，其次运用系统动力学原理和方法，对影响煤矿灾害预警的各因素进行动态仿真，对比分析各因素水平增加量对预警水平的影响程度，得出灾害预警中不同因素对预警水平的实际作用率。仿真结果有助于煤矿采取针对性的预警管理措施，同时为煤矿安全管理决策提供一个新的思路。