储罐区火灾引发多米诺效应的概率分析方法

摘要

石化工业储罐区储存大量易燃物质，储罐发生火灾可能对邻近储罐造成影响，引发严重的多米诺事故。火灾发生后的应急响应会对事故发展造成影响，并影响多米诺效应的发生概率。结合Probit分析方法和我国火灾应急响应统计数据，建立了储罐区火灾引发多米诺效应的概率分析模型，并以汽油储罐火灾为例，分析了多米诺效应的概率。%In petrochemical industry ,large quantities of different flammable substances are stored in tank areas .Due to mutual impacts among the tanks ,severe domino accidents may occur after a tank catches fire .The emergency response to a tank fire may influence the development of the accident and impact on the occurring likelihood of domino effects .Based on the Probit method for assessing domino effect triggered by fire and the statistical emergency response data of our country ,the probability assessment model for domino effect triggered by tank fire is proposed .Tank fire among gasoline storage tanks is taken as an example to illustrate this approach .